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Sunday, November 1, 2009

Right time to invest in Indian Stock Market


Unlike in September Indian bourses witnessed mixed mood in the month of October. In the first half of October bulls had taken control over Indian markt. But the second half of the show was stolen by the bears. Particularly the last week of October witnessed huge selling pressure which was first of it's kind in the recent past. All the five trading days of the week ended in red. Due to the continuous selling pressure Indian indices broke it's important psychological levels. There were expectations of FII inflow into Indian market during October. But it turned upside down. During second half of October FIIs and DIIs became the major sellers in the Indian market. Selling with huge volumes transformed expectations into dark clouds of despair. The increase in volume clearly pointed out that FIIs are selling a lot.
Global factors were the main drivers on Indian market during the first half of October. Sensex traded well above 17,000 mark these days. From this top sensex came down and crossed even 16,000 mark to close at 15896. It is down by 7.19% from it's September closing. Nifty also can't survive the bear attack and witnessed a 7.31% down from it's last month closing. All sectoral indices were under pressure. In October Sensex touched a high of 17493 and a low of 15805.
September quarter results and RBI policy declaration were the main events during the month. Both evoked mixed response among investors. But more inclination was towards the red zone. Heavy weights like RIL and Bharti Airtel recorded a loss in the second quarter which was unbearable for the market. The IRDA direction of second billing was another factor lead to the sell off in telecom stocks.(But now all service providers are taking it positively). The RBI stand to cut the flow of free money into the market was not inline with the expectation of the market. RBI raised SLR rates 1 percent to 25% from existing 24%. Indian market behaved rudely on the day of this policy announcement. It also raised the provision for commercial real estate loans from 0.4% to 1%. The real estate sector witnessed huge selling pressure because of this policy change.
In the month of October reality sector was down by 15% from it's September closing. It was the most beaten down sector in October. The dull Q2 figures from some of real estate majors also added fuel to the selling pressure. SEBI allowed to increase the trading time from 9.00am to 5.00pm was another development during October.It is believed that with the change in the trading time there will be atleast 105 increase in the trading volume. But lot more to be done to implement the name change in an effective manner.
Midcap and Smallcap stocks were not away from the selling pressure. The pressure was more on Smallcap stocks which recorded a 7% fall during October. Midcap stocks were down by 5%. Oil and gas sector stocks declined by about 10%. The fire in the IOC plant in Rajasthan is still a concern of Indian traders.Engineering stocks witnessed a 6.4% downfall. Auto, Banking and Power sectors were down by above 5% from their September closing. Consumer Durable stocks were down by 4.5% and IT down by 3.17%. The least affected sector was health care which recorded a loss of 0.61% only.
Looking ahead only one idea will benefit-buy at falls. Due to recent panic selling good stocks are now available at affordable rates. Long term investors should milk the situation. The depressing Q2 numbers may be the passing phase of a worst situation. When the economy will be in it's full swing there will be something for everyone to smile. Opportunities don't come often.

3 comments:

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